Nothing would suit the BJP better than to let Rajinikanth be the chief minister and pretend to abide by his spiritual path while quietly consolidating its vote bank, observes Amulya Ganguli.
And in the midst of it all, Jayalalithaa keeps the guessing game going, on her returning as chief minister and on calling for early assembly polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK coordinator O Panneerselvam is said to be upset at his son Raveendranath Kumar, a Lok Sabha MP, being denied a ministerial chance for a second time in a row, beginning with the formation of Modi 2.0 in 2019, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
The fact remains that in the present-day Tamil Nadu, GenX and GenY voters, born and/or growing up after the end of 'Kamaraj rule' in the '60s and 'MGR rule', respectively, constitute an absolute majority of the electorate. If they still vote for a Rajini or Kamal, in preference to the established 'Dravidian voters', it is despite the MGR imagery, not because of it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The message for 2024 is that the man on the street is not going to be euphoric if the G-20 crowns Modi as king-emperor for 2023, or if India sends its first man to space just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Even a 'temple consecration' in Ayodhya, or a Uniform Civil Code, or both of them together, may not have enough electoral purchase if fuel and commodity prices are not rolled back, and money-in-the-pocket does not fatten, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
One of the most charismatic figures of Tamil Nadu politics and the most enduring mascot of the Dravidian movement breathed his last at 6.10 pm.
Though EPS has sworn peace for now, or so it seems, his camp is said to be considering the possibility of calling an early meeting of the party's general council, to get a mandate in his favour before things went out of control. Ground-level indications are that OPS had lost his limited base, which alone had forced him to patch up with the other, reportedly at the instance of the BJP ally at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin does not face any threat to his full-fledged succession as DMK chief, just now. If he were to face any threat, it would only be against 'non-performance' as the party boss, N Sathiya Moorthy.
To claim that Tamil Nadu was waiting for a messiah of the 'spiritual' Rajini kind is misplaced, if not mischievous, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Modi looks to be an effective, result-oriented, purposeful leader, focused on bringing greatness and glory to the nation.'
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So it is best for his critics to give up their sniping and supplement his efforts,' asserts B S Raghavan, the distinguished civil servant who served three prime ministers.
'In the last three to four months the BJP vote share in Tamil Nadu, which was 2.86% in 2016, has gone up to about 5%-6%.' 'The AIADMK will lose the minority votes and others who don't like the BJP and Modi.' 'The AIADMK decided to take the risk to get the 5%-6% votes that the BJP will bring in.'
The RK Nagar bypoll result is a danger signal to the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu, says R Rajagopalan.
With election campaign ending in Tamil Nadu before it goes to polls on Thursday, N Sathiya Moorthy lists a few questions uppermost in the minds of voters.
Rajinikanth seems to have ended the recently-revived speculation about his imminent launch into direct politics, unlike in the past, when he had expressed specific or indirect support one or the other of the two 'Dravidian majors', says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Stalin has given due respect to seniority in the pecking order, but has also taken into consideration the demands of individual ministries and the suitability of individuals, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'It would be interesting to see how Yogi Adityanath is received in Tamil Nadu, where he is due to end his Ram Rajya Rath Yatra in Rameswaram on March 23.'
'The AIADMK gets votes from all sections of the minorities.' 'By aligning with the BJP the AIADMK stands to lose that vote'
'Most of those involved in these honour killings are the people who belong to the class that feels left out.' 'The high development index in a way is perpetuating conditions that result in social tension.' 'The only solution to the problem is politicise inter-caste marriages.'
The BJP may have to wait a little longer in Tamil Nadu to tie up with the superstar because, despite early and intermittent signals to the contrary, Rajinikanth has been going slow on his political project. Instead, he has been busy with two films on hand. One is acclaimed film-maker Shankar's 2.0. He has also quickly signed up for another movie produced by Sun Pictures of Kaalanidhi Maran, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
By aligning with the BJP, even if they were arm-twisted into doing so, the AIADMK leadership has yielded their political space in the state to the aunt-nephew duo of Sasikala-Dinakaran, and the parliamentary election to the DMK-Congress combine, says A Ganesh Nadar.
'Tamil Nadu is a state of temples, it's a holy land. People don't seem to realise that.'
The Congress MP from Sivaganga also slammed the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance and said the people of Tamil Nadu do not want a government which has any "stain, scent or shadow" of the BJP as its 'Hindi-Hindutva' agenda "irritates" them.
'Sasikala went to jail in a 19-year-old case.' 'Dinakaran went to jail in a case of attempting to bribe the Election Commission.' 'How can you link the BJP to these two cases?'
The revived factionalism in the AIADMK, if not curbed now, has the potential to split the party vertically, warns N Sathiya Moorthy.
Modi said he was not bothered about threats and abuses against him and asserted that he would do whatever was needed to make India strong.
Despite the BJP's displeasure over Sasikala's elevation as AIADMK general secretary, the Dravidian party has sent a message to the Modi government that it will not be cowed down, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Truth be acknowledged, Rajinikanth is not known for wanting to leave his comfort zone to take the politico-electoral plunge, even if it meant his becoming the chief minister of a state that has conferred Tamil cinema's superstardom on him over the past 25 years. Today, his fans belong to the younger generation all right, but their numbers are far fewer than their counterparts in the '90s. They are not devoid of personal ambitions and agendas, unlike what Rajinikanh wants them to be, if he and they were to enter politics, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Today, with the 'Cauvery row' in full flow, the DMK has managed to wrest the 'pan-Tamil initiative' for the Dravidian polity as a whole. What more, the DMK has also stolen much of the 'Tamil thunder' that had belonged to peripheral pan-Tamil groups over the Jallikattu protests in January 2017, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Close on the heels of the Ambedkar cartoon row, a cartoon on the anti-Hindi agitation in Tamil Nadu in the 1960s in a NCERT class XII text book has kicked up another controversy in the state, with key United Progressive Alliance ally Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam demanding its removal and other parties joining the chorus.
'When an individual becomes authoritarian, you can overthrow the individual easily. 'When the system becomes authoritarian, whoever challenges the system will be called a criminal or an anti-national.'
'The common belief in political circles is that if you provide reservation to somebody, s/he will automatically come up.' 'This is a very faulty understanding.'
'The honourable prime minister virtually handpicked me for the Amritsar East seat.' 'Amit Shahji announced that if I am elected, the whole of Punjab will be drugs free.'
'To them, the day may not be far off when the state BJP starts claiming and propagating that Modi is next only to AIADMK's late boss Jayalalithaa,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'He just said that those who cannot control the violence should go. He did not name the BJP.'
He was a nine-time MLA, one-time Lok Sabha member and former finance minister of Tamil Nadu and a close friend of former Chief Minister late Karunanidhi.
It looks as if competing political parties in Tamil Nadu have not grasped the full impact and import of a sizable section of voters possibly staying away from voting -- voters, supposedly with a predictable polling pattern -- owing to the Covid second wave and more so, how it could affect the outcome in individual constituencies and even booths, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Elections will also be held in 35 assembly constituencies in Odisha.
Ahead of the crucial meeting of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam top brass in Chennai, Congress on Saturday signalled that its seven-year-old alliance with the Dravidian party in poll-bound Tamil Nadu, would be saved.
While Muthuraman is suspected to be a Bharatiya Janata Party worker, Francis is believed to be a Communist Party of India activist, police said.
On its own or with allies the Congress has a strong presence in states that account for a total of 253 LS seats, or 20 short of the magic figure of 272 required to form a government at the Centre. So what is Mamata Banerjee talking about, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
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